A settlement with an army embedded into it, especially a medium or large army (8-10 units or more, especially good units) will rarely be attacked. A level II minor settlement with a small garrison will likely be attacked a level II minor settlement with fortifications and a larger garrison will probably still be attacked, but not if the rogue army has been significantly weakened by battle. However, rogue armies, like all armies, take local power into account.
However, they are actively drawn towards lightly-defended settlements, usually minor settlements, which they will happily attack if the army has a significant advantage. Unless rogue armies are at war with you, they tend to avoid targeting armies.
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